To carry out the foresight in 2011, the initiator and executor of the project was JSC "National Innovation Fund" of the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Kazakhstan. The project was headed by Elena Valeryevna Shevchenko, PhD in Economics.
Agro-industrial Complex:
SWOT analysis of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats;
Construction of a success probability chart for key products;
Development of a technology tree and technology analysis;
Conducting technological analysis and creation of technology analysis tables;
BMO (Bruce-Merrifield-Ohe) technology analysis.
Mining and Metallurgical Complex:
SWOT analysis of Kazakhstan’s scientific and technological development;
Scientific and informational support for the mining and metallurgical complex;
Identification of priority problems and thematic directions for research in mining and metallurgy;
Dynamics of R&D implementation in mining and metallurgy;
Identification of research organizations performing R&D on mining problems;
Vision, goals, and objectives of Kazakhstan’s scientific and technological development up to 2020;
Key products and services for Kazakhstan up to 2020;
Technology tree development;
BMO analysis based on technology evaluation criteria;
Identification of critical technologies up to 2020.
Information and Communication Technologies:
SWOT analysis of Kazakhstan’s scientific and technological development;
Definition of vision, goals, and objectives for scientific and technological development up to 2020;
Identification of key products and services for Kazakhstan up to 2020;
Construction of product (service) success probability chart;
Development of a technology tree;
Technological analysis and preparation of technology analysis tables;
BMO (Bruce-Merrifield-Ohe) technology analysis;
Identification of critical technologies up to 2020.
Mechanical Engineering:
SWOT analysis of Kazakhstan’s scientific and technological development and the mechanical engineering sector;
Definition of vision, goals, and objectives for scientific and technological development up to 2020;
Identification of key products and services for Kazakhstan up to 2020;
Construction of product (service) success probability chart;
Development of a technology tree;
Technological analysis;
Identification of critical technologies up to 2020.
Chemistry and Petrochemistry – Chemical Industry:
Review of Kazakhstan’s experience in foresight studies in the chemical industry;
Grouping of promising chemical products by sub-sectors of the chemical industry;
SWOT analyses of the chemical industry, inorganic chemistry, and organic chemistry;
Construction of a success probability chart for key products;
Development of a technology tree and technological analysis;
BMO (Bruce-Merrifield-Ohe) technology analysis.
Energy Sector:
SWOT analysis of Kazakhstan’s scientific and technological development in energy;
Definition of vision, goals, and objectives for scientific and technological development up to 2020;
Identification of key products and services for Kazakhstan up to 2020;
Identification of critical technologies up to 2020;
BMO analysis results for technologies in the energy sector;
Bubble chart of technology success potential (probability) in the energy sector.
Oil and Gas Sector:
SWOT analysis of the sector and key technologies.
To conduct the Science and Technology Foresight in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020, expert groups were formed in the following priority areas:
Agro-industrial Complex – Head of the expert group: Gainy Toleualievna Sarbasova, Doctor of Agricultural Sciences.
Mining and Metallurgical Complex – Head of the expert group: Irken Murdunovich Kamberov.
Information and Communication Technologies – Head of the expert group: Bikesh Kaidarovna Kurmangalieva.
Mechanical Engineering – Head of the expert group: Vasily Nikolaevich Lizunov.
Chemistry and Petrochemistry – Chemical Industry – Head of the expert group: Viktor Pavlovich Dzekunov, PhD in Chemistry, Associate Professor.
Energy Sector – Head of the expert group: Valery Georgievich Zhiltsov.
Oil and Gas Sector (no expert group leader specified)
Brief Overview of the Results of the Science and Technology Foresight in the Republic of Kazakhstan up to 2020
1. Initiator and executor of the project: | JSC "National Innovation Fund" of the Ministry of Industry and New Technologies of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 2011. |
2. Head of Works: | Shevchenko Elena |
3. Composition of Expert Groups by Priority Areas
Priority Area | Head of the Expert Group | Members of the Expert Group |
1. Агропромышленный комплекс | Сарбасова Гайни Толеуалиевна, д. с-х. н.
| Ускенов Рашит Бихитжанович, к.с-х.н, доцент |
2. Горно-металлургический комплекс | Камберов Иркен Мурдунович
| Айсаутов Мынжасар Айсаутович, к. т. н. |
3. Информационно-коммуникационные технологи | Курмангалиева Бикеш Кайдаровна | Котоянц Каринэ Вартановна,к. ф-м. н. |
4. Машиностроение | Лизунов Василий Николаевич
| Атекеев Оразкен Садыкович |
5. Химия и нефтехимия — Химическая промышленность | Дзекунов Виктор Павлович,к. х. н., доцент
| Сармурзина Раушан Гайсиевна,д. х. н. |
6. Энергетическая отрасль | Жильцов Валерий Георгиевич
| Искаков Бисембай Мамаевич,д. ф-м. н., профессор. |
7. Нефтегазовая отрасль |
The objective of the study is to create an informational foundation for the development and adjustment of science, technology, and innovation policy.
During the course of the research, work was carried out to analyze global industrial and innovation development trends and to identify key technological megatrends. This included the identification of technological megatrends, challenges, and needs that may impact the future development of Kazakhstan. Technological development trends in the seven aforementioned sectors were analyzed globally and nationally. Visions, goals, and objectives for Kazakhstan’s scientific and technological development up to 2020 were also outlined.
To identify the country’s key products and services for the period up to 2020 across the seven sectors, a Delphi survey was prepared and conducted. Based on its results, a list of products and services was prioritized according to their importance.
Further research focused on determining priority sectors by grouping products and services by technology area using the criterion of maximum socio-economic impact. This included SWOT analysis, probability-of-success charts, technology trees, as well as technology and BMO (Benefit, Market, and Opportunity) analyses, according to technology evaluation criteria.
As a result of the research in all seven sectors, a list of critical technologies was identified for the period up to 2020.
Below, in order to conserve web resources of the National Academy of Sciences under the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the foresight research results are presented starting from the SWOT analysis stage by priority areas.
Results of the scientific and technological foresight in the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period up to 2020
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