2013 Foresight for the Project "Systems Analysis and Forecasting in Science and Technology"

 3.     Состав экспертных групп по приоритетным направлениям

Conducting systematic and forecasting studies with the aim of identifying promising scientific and technological directions that could form the basis of Kazakhstan’s long-term scientific and innovation development policy.

The project tasks were:

• Collection and analysis of information on the state and trends of science and technology development in the world and Kazakhstan, analysis of strategic plans for scientific and technological development, patent information, and portfolio analysis of research programs.

• Identification of key scientific topics within the priority areas of science and technology development in Kazakhstan for the medium-term perspective.

• Formation of a portfolio of programs and projects for the development of critical technologies for the medium-term period within the priority areas.

• Development of a draft action plan for the development of science within the priority areas (projects of roadmaps for the development of critical technologies by priority areas).

The identification and selection of directions were based on the assessment of the socio-economic impact of new technologies and the evaluation of resource and technological capabilities for their implementation.

As a result of these studies, alternative future development scenarios were developed, which should serve as the basis for synchronizing the development and subsequent implementation of state policies in science and technology, industry, environment, healthcare, and security (through interaction of stakeholders).

Methodological support for the research was provided by leading international experts in foresight studies (University of Manchester, Korean Institute of Science and Technology Evaluation and Planning, Finnish Academy of Sciences, UNIDO, J’son & Partners).

The following types of research were carried out under the project:

• Analytical materials on global trends in the development of science and technology, social, environmental, political, and economic trends, as well as trends in science, technology, policy, economy, social shifts, and ecology in Kazakhstan were discussed, including:

  • Global challenges, trends, development factors, and strategies to overcome negative impacts;

  • Trends and factors specific to Kazakhstan and strategies to overcome negative impacts;

  • Analysis of priority development strategies worldwide;

  • Analysis of priority development strategies in Kazakhstan;

  • STEEP analysis;

  • Analysis of mutual influence of factors.

• Results of the analysis provided by the Client on selected priority areas were discussed, namely:

  • The state of science development in Kazakhstan – patents, their commercialization, R&D directions;

  • Patents and commercialization of scientific research worldwide;

  • Science development plans by sectors and national companies of Kazakhstan;

  • R&D conducted by research institutes and universities;

  • The degree of commercialization of conducted R&D in Kazakhstan;

  • R&D financing by sector (which ministries and agencies finance which research directions and scientific projects, their scale, and commercialization level).

• A SWOT analysis of the state and trends of development in the world and Kazakhstan was conducted; challenges, threats, and opportunities for Kazakhstan were identified based on analytical materials and expert panel input.

• Future challenges for the world and Kazakhstan were discussed, along with Kazakhstan’s strengths and weaknesses in accordance with the challenges and trends in selected priority areas.

• Threats and opportunities for Kazakhstan were identified, and proposals were developed for Kazakhstan’s strategy to respond to future challenges (from the perspective of building a vision for Kazakhstan’s future scientific development based on identified challenges and trends) by priority directions.

• Existing markets were analyzed, and future markets were identified by priority directions.

• Development scenarios for priority directions up to 2030 were formed according to future challenges, trends, and opportunities relevant to Kazakhstan.

• Development scenarios were discussed and a priority vision (scenario) for the development of priority directions was chosen.

• A summary of the work on scenario development and selection of the priority scenario was prepared.

• Presentation of the work results was held at the Expert Panel and discussed between expert panels.

• Analysis of existing markets and identification of future markets for priority directions was conducted.

• Broad discussions of the project results were held with expert panels of priority directions, including representatives from research institutes, universities, government bodies, and industry.

• A long list of products (services) and a list of key products and services necessary for implementing the future development scenario by priority directions were formed.

• Directions (themes) of scientific research necessary for obtaining key products and services by priority directions and existing science development priorities were defined.

• An analysis of existing competencies (human capital, infrastructure, legislation) for the development of scientific directions identified at the previous stage was conducted, along with analysis of global competencies (countries with the most patents, target markets, existing scientific competencies, patent commercialization speed, etc.).

• Opportunities for the development of scientific directions in Kazakhstan (availability or possibility of developing own scientific competencies) were identified.

• Opportunities for conducting joint scientific research with foreign institutions were evaluated.

• The necessity of transferring already existing competencies and technologies was assessed.

• Evaluation of the research results was conducted, necessary adjustments made, and final directions (themes) of scientific research by priority directions were formed.

• Draft roadmaps (Action Plans for the development of science) for priority directions of the Expert Panels were developed, including passports of priority scientific research and development themes, graphic materials, and roadmap descriptions.

• Sessions of Expert Panels on eight priority directions were held.

• Final reporting materials on Expert Panels for priority directions were prepared.

• Expert groups for priority directions prepared materials to present project results to the broader public (representatives of science, universities, business, government bodies) at the “Synergy – Uniting Science, Business and Society” Forum in January 2014 in Almaty.